There are two (potentially three) waves of foreclosure.
1st Wave, 2006 – 2010
This wave was started by sub-prime loans and foreclosures caused unemployment 2010:
However, “Robo” signing changed the foreclosure timelines. In 2007, the average number of defaults in CA was 17,000. By 2010, the average number of defaults in CA was 78,000, and it’s almost guaranteed homeowner will loose their home.
2nd Wave is currently happening
This wave was driven by unemployment. In fact, every 6-10 job losses causes one new foreclosure.
Foreclosure activity is increasing in state with most server unemployment problem.
Causes of a potential third wave comes from toxic ARMs that could trigger more foreclosures:
False Positive
A false positive happens when the media reports that there is a drop in foreclosure. For example, it’s reported that Florida has seen a 60% drop in foreclosure, giving people a false impression that the housing crises is getting better. But that’s a false positive because in reality the foreclosure process is just getting pushed out by the courts that have a back-log of properties.
Foreclosure Timeline
NY; 966 days
NJ; 944 days
FL; 670 days
CA; 400 days
Hope
RealtyTrac is seeing fewer new delinquencies from loans made in the last 4 years.
2011 Projections
Inventory Control
If all properties hit the market at once it would devastate the market & probably cause another wave.
More REOs than foreclosures. Currently the ratio is (1:1), REO sales vs. New Defaults
Housing Implications; Dog chasing its tail
Rick doesn’t believe the economy will get better till housing improves.
However, the housing crisis will improve till unemployment drops.
Yet, job growth won’t happen till the economy improves.
Of the three, probably jobs will improve first but not sure where they’ll come from.
Sales
Much selling is from the lower end of market and multi-family selling best, which will increase renting.
96% of loans are underwritten by government entities, and most buyers are first timers or investors.
Hopefully market will bottom out this year.
New Home Sales
It’ll be a very difficult time for new home sales during the next few years. The greatest interest is in buying foreclosed homes, and 60% of active home buyers are looking for REOs.
The Pipeline
Pipeline of 6 millions foreclosed homes, but only about 500,000 sell annually. That means the inventory is outpacing absorption:
In the end, if you are an agent, it’s best to remember that the race is not about getting as many REO listings. Rather, the race is about selling as many properties as possible.





