The State of Foreclosures & REOs

Rick Sharga, Sr. Vice President RealtyTrac

Sr. VP, RealtyTrac, Rick Sharga

Rick Sharga from RealtyTrac spoke at the NAREB’s national convention last week, and here are a few notes from his presentation.

There are two (potentially three) waves of foreclosure.

1st Wave, 2006 – 2010
This wave was started by sub-prime loans and foreclosures caused unemployment 2010:

  • 2.9 million homes receiving foreclosure notice
  • 1 million REO
  • However, “Robo” signing changed the foreclosure timelines. In 2007, the average number of defaults in CA was 17,000. By 2010, the average number of defaults in CA was 78,000, and it’s almost guaranteed homeowner will loose their home.

    2nd Wave is currently happening
    This wave was driven by unemployment. In fact, every 6-10 job losses causes one new foreclosure.

    Foreclosure activity is increasing in state with most server unemployment problem.

  • Foreclosure spreading to states with high unemployment rates
  • Smaller markets see an increased foreclosure rate because of unemployment
  • Comstock Images - Balancing Mortgage Rates

    Comstock Images - Balancing Mortgage Rates

    A 3rd potential wave of foreclosures
    Causes of a potential third wave comes from toxic ARMs that could trigger more foreclosures:

  • Loans are about to reset with paying principle
  • On average, the reset will increase monthly payment by $1,000
  • If the homeowner only paid neg-AM, they will owe even more on a property that dropped 30 – 50% in value.
  • This wave could potentially bring a large group of strategic defaults

    False Positive
    A false positive happens when the media reports that there is a drop in foreclosure. For example, it’s reported that Florida has seen a 60% drop in foreclosure, giving people a false impression that the housing crises is getting better. But that’s a false positive because in reality the foreclosure process is just getting pushed out by the courts that have a back-log of properties.

    Foreclosure Timeline
    NY; 966 days
    NJ; 944 days
    FL; 670 days
    CA; 400 days

    Hope
    RealtyTrac is seeing fewer new delinquencies from loans made in the last 4 years.

    2011 Projections

  • 2.4 millions NOD
  • 900,000 REOs
  • Inventory Control
    If all properties hit the market at once it would devastate the market & probably cause another wave.
    More REOs than foreclosures. Currently the ratio is (1:1), REO sales vs. New Defaults

    Housing Implications; Dog chasing its tail
    Rick doesn’t believe the economy will get better till housing improves.
    However, the housing crisis will improve till unemployment drops.
    Yet, job growth won’t happen till the economy improves.

    Of the three, probably jobs will improve first but not sure where they’ll come from.

    Sales
    Much selling is from the lower end of market and multi-family selling best, which will increase renting.
    96% of loans are underwritten by government entities, and most buyers are first timers or investors.
    Hopefully market will bottom out this year.

    New Home Sales
    It’ll be a very difficult time for new home sales during the next few years. The greatest interest is in buying foreclosed homes, and 60% of active home buyers are looking for REOs.

    The Pipeline
    Pipeline of 6 millions foreclosed homes, but only about 500,000 sell annually. That means the inventory is outpacing absorption:

  • Less than 20% of foreclosed properties are on MLS
  • Growing # of properties being rented
  • In the end, if you are an agent, it’s best to remember that the race is not about getting as many REO listings. Rather, the race is about selling as many properties as possible.

    Posted in Banks, Education, Foreclosure, Homeowner, Homeowners Facing Foreclosure, Housing Market, Investor, Investors Looking to buy Bank-Owned/REO Properties, REO, REO Listings, Strategic default | Tagged | Leave a comment

    U.S. Lost. Triple AAA gone.

    In 2005 I was hired by a national real estate network to study the mortgage default process and to create synergistic relationships between that sector and the network. The goal was to create REO buying opportunities for the network’s investors.

    The network acted as a liaison between brokers and investors; both spread around the United States. Wanting to be a real estate investor, I thought the network was the perfect job, especially since the founder bragged that none of his clients lost a home via foreclosure. Perfect position, right?

    Fast forward to August 2007. The network had major financial losses, and many of their investors were loosing properties through foreclosure. Sadly, 90% of network employees were laid-off, and I was one of them.

    Fast forward to August 2011. The U.S. lost its coveted AAA rating, causing me to ask the same question during my lay-off … How did this happen?

    Don’t our leaders have the best financial resources? Don’t the get advice from the leading economist and business minds? Why did the problem get this bad? Couldn’t they have been more proactive?

    Since May, when the debt ceiling debate began making noise, our Government leaders expanded their rhetorical circus, but this wasn’t funny or entertaining. Rather it was a joke.

    For weeks both side pointed fingers at other clowns, their painted smiles said, they’re causing the problem. Wouldn’t it be great if our leaders realized this is not an “Us vs. Them” problem. This is an “Our” problem?

    Hours before the August 2 deadline approached, the clowns stood proud, praising themselves, We’re coming together, making the effort to work on the problem. PLEASE … (said with a Beyonce-esque attitude).

    As the circus rolls by, the public prays the Hail Mary Pass, says Amen, and realizes there’s more lost than money. We’ve lost trust.

    Posted in Government, Housing Market, Politics & Policies, Treasury, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

    Why we own $14.3 trillion in debt

    Nothing new here … sweaty palms in Washington and bickering bantors keep history alive.

    Thanks to The New York Times, here’s a quick glance at our historic accumulations and who holds what, causing the U.S. to have $14.3 trillion in debt.

    History of the Debt Ceiling

    History of the Debt Ceiling from The New York Times

    Posted in Banks, Education, Government, Investor, Lending, Media | Leave a comment

    Global Economics

    Keep thinking about a comment from Chris Thornberg, “The U.S. economy will improve once Greece’s economy improves.”

    Today CNN Money reported that Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Greece again, to one class above default, following a new bailout package from its European neighbors.

    Moody’s downgraded Greece’s debt rating to “Ca” from the already junk rating of “Caa1,” which is far below investment grade.

    Moody’s defines the “Ca” rating as “very near default.” It is just one class above the lowest rating, “C,” which is applied to bonds that are in default.

    “The support package incorporates the participation of private sector holders of Greek debt, who are now virtually certain to incur credit losses,” said Moody’s, in its report on the downgrade. “If and when the debt exchanges occur, Moody’s would define this as a default by the Greek government on its public debt.”

    Back to the U.S.
    Based on what I read/see in the news, I still don’t have an opinion to the following questions:
    1. How is the U.S. economy connected to Greece’s economy?
    2. What happens if we do or don’t raise the debt ceiling?
    3. Are we going into default?
    4. Who or what agency defines our default?
    5. Why can’t the leaders on the hill compromise?

    In my research to answer the above questions, I found the following chart with Moody’s Rating Symbols and Definitions. Below that, you’ll find a Moody’s Rating list by Country. If you’re trying to answer the same questions that I am, hopefully the following information helps you too.

    Moody's Rating Symbol and Definitions

    Moody's Rating Symbol and Definitions

    Moody's Ratings by Country

    Moody's Ratings by Country

    Posted in Bailout, Banks, Education, Government, Investor, Media, Politics & Policies, Treasury | Leave a comment

    5 tips for a successful short sale

    Many thanks to Broker Bryant in Poinciana, FL for providing these good proactive, short sale tips.

    It was originally written to help agents avoid legal troubles, but I made a few changes to show homeowners the advice could also apply to them.

    1. Agents, make sure you are covered with your E & O insurance.

    2. Agents and homeowners should use email as often as possible for communications. Then you’ll have a written record of your conversations. Follow up your phone conversation with an email, outlining the talking points. This also helps to eliminate confusion. “Your Honor he never told us that” Yes I did. Look here.

    3. Agents, have a disclosure package at time of contract that outlines the short sale process in detail and what can be expected. Have this all signed and dated along with the MARs disclosures. Then the homeowner can not say, “We thought he was giving us legal advice so we didn’t hire an Attorney”. Sorry, but you signed here agreeing I was NOT an Attorney, and that I was NOT giving legal advice.

    4. Have a log of every action you take related to the short sale. I use Google Calendars for this. My Sellers share in this so that every time I make a notation they receive an email. A recent transaction had over 300 notations. That equates to 300 email updates. It would be very difficult for agent/homeowner to tell a Judge the job was not done properly.

    5. Agents, after each closing ask your client to write you a testimonial. Place this in the file. “But your Honor read this. They said I was awesome!!”

    Posted in Banks, Education, Homeowner, Investor, Legal, Short Sale | Leave a comment

    Moody, Foreclosures and Debt

    It’ll be interesting to watch our government and housing sector during the next three weeks. Here are three topics I’ll keep an extra eye on.

    1. Moody; last night Moody warned that the U.S. AAA bond rating was in peril if it doesn’t put the kibosh on this debt-ceiling debacle.

    2. Foreclosures; today CNNMoney reported that foreclosures plunge in the first have of 2011.

    3. U.S. Debt; August 2nd the U.S. debt limit ends, and at that time our debt will total $14.29 trillion.

    Let’s try to make sense of this craziness.

    First, if Moody lowers the rating, we’ll pay higher interest rates to buy a car, home and qualify for credit. That doesn’t sound great; certainly not good news for me.

    Second, the foreclosure plunge is a false hope, and that’s primarily because have an excess amount of inventory. CNNMoney reported that RealtyTrac’s CEO, James Saccacio, sounded a sour note, however, contending that the drop-off in filings can be traced not to economic improvement or a pick-up in the housing market, but to processing delays brought on by the robo-signing scandal in which it was discovered that bank employees were signing foreclosure documents without following proper protocols.

    “[That's what is] pushing foreclosures further and further out — we estimate that as many as 1 million foreclosure actions that should have taken place in 2011 will now happen in 2012, or perhaps even later,” Saccacio said. As a result, it will only prolong the housing slump, he said.

    Third, should we raise the debt ceiling? Since I’m not an economist or a financial planner I’ll try (said with sarcasm) to use common sense to analyze the question, and that will be done with a “what if” theory.

    What if your parents spent more than they had and you were responsible for paying off their debt? Would you let them borrow more money?

    On one hand, as their child no doubt you’d want to honor them. After all, they brought you into this world. Cared for you. Helped you grow and prosper. On the other hand, their spending is out of control, and you don’t share their illogical spending habits, and – most importantly – you don’t have the money to pay off their debt. Can’t there be a compromise were they still have freedom and happiness?

    At this point, I’d rather have a realistic understanding of the problem than face it with ignorance.

    As one who reads the news daily and tries to keep a pulse on the housing crisis, it’s frustrating when the media primarily focuses on our political defenses rather than our offences?
    … Don’t call my bluff.
    … “But House and Senate freshmen, they actually want to make spending cuts, …. That’s the divide.”
    … GOPs ripped the intraparty fissure wide open Tuesday when McConnell announced a plan that would give President Obama the authority to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion without making budget cuts.

    Isn’t there anything they agree on? Isn’t there some way to create a compromise? What about listing to Dave Ramsey’s advice; to be debt free pay off the smallest debt first. Once it’s paid off, apply that ex-monthly payment towards another bill. I don’t have all the answers, but that sounds logical.

    To get a better understanding of our debt, check out this interactive graph, Hitting the Limits from CNNMoney.

    God only know if President Obama and other U.S. leaders have the ability to solve our economic crisis. As for me, I’ll watch my spending, stay focused on increasing my revenue, and keep them in my heart and pray for the best.

    Amen.

    How does the U.S. debt ceiling work & why does it matter?

    Watch the full episode. See more PBS NewsHour.

    Posted in Banks, Education, Foreclosure, Government, Homeowner, Housing Market, Legal, Lending, Media, REO, Treasury, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

    Sustainable companies

    On July 10th, I wrote about the essence of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). With that insight, let’s focus on how CSR can be implemented into the mortgage default sector.

    For starters, lenders, servicers, outsourcers, agents, and other real estate professionals can implement a CSR program. It doesn’t matter if the company is global, national, regional, or local.

    Basically, CSR looks beyond a company’s financial bottom-line by incorporating a triple bottom-line; financial, social and environmental.

    Still, it is often stated that small and medium size companies haven’t got time or resources to be interested in CSR. To buck that trend, let’s look at how any company (even an REO listing broker) can reduce their environmental impact.

    Here are a few CSR suggestions:

  • Return cardboard, plastic packaging for recycling for biofuels
  • Use energy efficient equipment and paper and monitoring CO2 emissions
  • Use chlorine and phosphate free based products where available
  • Specify vegetable based inks for printing
  • Support the local community and economy by buying local food and other goods and services
  • If you provide food, purchase products grown under organic standards to encourage the reduction in the use of harmful intensive farming techniques. Plus, to the best of the company’s knowledge provide food that is not genetically modified
  • In your company kitchen, use elemental chlorine-free paper and bleach free biodegradable packaging (e.g. wooden cutlery, paper cups and straws)
  • Offer telecommuting options to employees
  • Establish a recycling program and distribute recycling containers around your buildings to encourage separation of waste and recyclable items
  • On a fun note, if you’re going out to eat, research your neighborhood to see if there’s a restaurant similar to White Dog Cafe in PA
  • To learn more about CSR, visit the Harvard Kennedy School, CSR Initiative.

    Posted in Education | Leave a comment